538 forecast 2016

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Every forecasting model had to decide how it will weigh those newest polls versus the older polls we’ve known of for some time. More specifically, Joe Biden’s lead in Pennsylvania — the most likely tipping-point state, according to our forecast — is solid but not spectacular: about 5 points in our polling average . Is it a change in the model, or more steady public opinion, or both? Qualitative ratings reflect the rating for the state in the middle of each organization’s forecast, weighted by electoral votes. Start your Independent Premium subscription today. So to some extent, I don't care what its final forecast would have been in 2016 as long as it’s somewhere in the right vicinity between Clinton 60% and Clinton 85%. hide . FiveThirtyEight, sometimes rendered as 538, is a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging. 82% Upvoted. Hunter Biden Email Reportedly Names Kamala Harris, Others as Key Contacts for 'Joint Venture' With China Energy Co. Scientists Link This Superspreader Event in February to Around 300,000 COVID Cases, CCPA - Do Not Sell My Personal Information, FiveThirtyEight debuts election forecast: Trump has the same chance of winning now as he did in November 2016. All Rights Reserved. On Tuesday morning the Action Network’s Darren Rovell tweeted out the final Five Thirty-Eight forecast for both the 2016 election and the 2020 election and pointed out how “they were wrong” four years ago. Trump's chances. JUST IN: FiveThirtyEight Now Forecasts Democrats Will Win Control of Senate. Note: The 538 model shown is its default (polls-only) forecast. (It’s hard to imagine any scenario in which Trump wins the popular vote, which makes me wonder how to square that with his 29 percent overall chance of winning.) The 29 percent shot he enjoys right now isn’t really driven by the polls: Although the race has tightened a bit in the past few weeks, Biden still enjoys a national lead in the six- to seven-point range, which has the makings of a comfortable win. The original version of this post is archived here. Historical (pre-2016) 538 Forecasts? Due to the sheer scale of this comment community, we are not able to give each post the same level of attention, but we have preserved this area in the interests of open debate. The Fivethirtyeight forecast gives Biden a 72% chance of winning the electoral vote, a bit less than the 89% coming from our model at the Economist.. Eric Bolling was beside himself with glee when he announced how Trump had moved ahead in the forecast), things are just as bad. Models: 538 - 2016 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight RCP - RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps CNN 2016 Electoral Map (Interactive) NY Times The Upshot Huffington Post 270ToWin.com Results: RealClearPolitics - Opinion, News, Analysis, Video and Polls Election Results 2016 - The New York Times RealClearPolitics Ryan Grim at the Huffington Post says "Nate Silver Is … The Economist and Fivethirtheight forecasts differ in their point predictions for Florida. If the election were held today, I suspect Trump would have a less than one in 10 chance at victory. Despite the similarity in the numbers, Trump’s 29 percent chance then is qualitatively different from his 29 percent chance now. But the election’s not being held today, is it? Are you sure you want to delete this comment? Tweet; Share; Comment; Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times’ the Upshot offer two different sets of numbers. AllahpunditPosted at 11:31 am on August 12, 2020. As in 2016, Trump could potentially benefit from the Electoral College. To create a 2020 map, visit the home page or begin editing below. He leads … Nov. 11, 2016, at 4:09 PM. “In fact,” says Silver, describing his model, “the uncertainty index points toward the overall uncertainty going into November being about average relative to past presidential campaigns.”. Thread starter platocplx; Start date Sep 28, 2020; Forums. Please continue to respect all commenters and create constructive debates. Why is the 538 forecast more steady this cycle than last cycle? Projected margins in the tipping-point states are considerably tighter than the margins in the national popular vote. 90. Weird and not-so-weird possibilities. I assume that the big difference here is that we’re using different fundamentals-based predictions, so we’re partially pooling toward a prior of Biden getting 54% of the national vote, while their prior is something more like 52%. Louis Jacobson/Governing 2016 Electoral Map. Want an ad-free experience?Subscribe to Independent Premium. # It’s all about the 538 Electoral College votes. And opinions about the president tend to be baked in, not something that people are still sussing out three and a half years into his term. 538's 2016 prediction. When 538's presidential election forecast is released, will the chance of a Trump victory be higher than that given by the forecast from The Economist at that time? Note: The 538 model shown is its default (polls-only) forecast. Follow @TheFix on Twitter for their latest commentary and analysis of the 2016 elections. The difference is that Hillary also had moments when her odds crashed, twice dipping below 55 percent and declining by more than 20 points over the second half of October. He leads … 2016 vs 2020 2016 - Clinton up 1.4% 2020 - Biden up 6.8% We all know electoral college matters so swing states have more say than overall national votes but this is … FiveThirtyEight noticed the shift towards Trump in the numbers at the time and recalibrated accordingly. The Babylon Bee NAILS the Biden-Media Love Affair and It Couldn't Be More LOL Perfect, 'It needs to be destroyed': The Vatican unveils its Sumerian-influenced sci-fi nativity scene. But new polling is still coming in every day, and right now this new polling is tending to show a shrinking national lead for Clinton, and a mixed picture in swing states. Prev. Neue Fotos werden der Galerie ständig hinzugefügt. Copyright HotAir.com/Salem Media. If he wins a second term, odds are it’ll be by the skin of his teeth. Historical (pre-2016) 538 Forecasts? But maybe that’s about to change as the campaign grows more active and Biden becomes more visible? The map at this URL was originally created for the 2016 election. vote. Want to bookmark your favourite articles and stories to read or reference later? In the case that multiple forecasts are released by 538, the model considering the most information is chosen for this question. save. As the election gets closer — and as we get swamped with new polls — the forecast will get less uncertain. i know that 2008/12 saw 99 of 100 states right. Terrible article. You can find our Community Guidelines in full here. Aug 02, 2016 6:34 PM. Silver has justified giving Mr Trump such high chances in the past on the basis that, with the polls all pretty tight, many different scenarios remain possible. Just like everyone on election day 538 political prognosticator Nate Silver is a bit on edge. save. hide . Response to Norbert (Original post) Tue Oct 27, 2020, 10:35 … (Clinton 71%, Trump 29%) As was also the case in 2016, our model gives Trump a MUCH higher chance than other statistical models. Biden, by contrast, has been rock-steady since June 1, never dipping below 69 percent. Please be respectful when making a comment and adhere to our Community Guidelines. Facebook; Twitter; Email; … If you look at the model itself, you’ll find that there are very few scenarios in which Trump does much better than 300 electoral votes. It allows our most engaged readers to debate the big issues, share their own experiences, discuss real-world solutions, and more. Hier sollte eine Beschreibung angezeigt werden, diese Seite lässt dies jedoch nicht zu. Comparing the two forecasts. Key. If you do it right, your national forecast is just the aggregation of your state forecasts, and these forecasts are influenced both by national and state polls. 538 is currently forecasting a 68% chance that Democrats will gain enough seats to control the Senate in this election cycle — with the most likely result being a net pickup of 4 seats. “It’s way too soon to count Trump out,” Silver concludes, which is certainly true. With the same information, 538 is currently predicting a 65 percent chance of a Clinton victory, while HuffPost’s Natalie Jackson and Adam Hooper are projecting a 98 percent chance, and Sam Wang at Princeton Electoral Consortium is predicting a >99 percent chance. At this point in the race, hundreds of polls have been conducted, and the vast, vast majority of them show Hillary Clinton winning nationally and in enough states to win the presidency. A colleague pointed me to Nate Silver’s election forecast; see here and here:. Biden is in a reasonably strong position: Having a 70-ish percent chance of beating an incumbent in early August before any conventions or debates is far better than the position that most challengers find themselves in. A pandemic, an economic collapse, anti-racism riots and protracted violence, and FiveThirtyEight estimates that this race is about as stable as any other presidential contest. Chance of winning Electoral votes Popular vote. Filed under 2016 Election. On the morning of Nov. 5, 2016, I went to Hillary Clinton’s campaign headquarters in Scranton, Pa. — home town of Joe Biden (who was holding … If I were Sleepy Joe, I wouldn’t feel at all comfortable about a four-point lead in any battleground given how pollsters overlooked the strength of Trump’s working-class support last time. I assume that the big difference here is that we’re using different fundamentals-based predictions, so we’re partially pooling toward a prior of Biden getting 54% of the national vote, while their prior is something more like 52%. Shit, I had no idea he was close to 50% probability…so unless I’m mistaken (Numbers were never my strong point) it’s pretty much anyone’s guess which off the two will take it at this point? Benchmarking with the 2016–2017 Season. By MARGARET CHADBOURN. 2016 vs 2020 2016 - Clinton up 1.4% 2020 - Biden up 6.8% We all know electoral college matters so swing states have more say than overall national votes but this is … On November 4, 2016 the 538 forecast showed the following: Clinton: 64.5% chance of winning Trump: 35.4% chance of winning On November 8, 2016 (Election Day) the 538 forecast showed the following: Clinton: 71.4% chance of winning Trump: 28.6% chance of winning Reply to this post. 70. report. As he had done in the 2008-2014 elections, Silver set out to predict first the outcome 2016 Republican Presidential Primary and then the results of the Presidential race. share. The site’s final forecast in 2016 gave Hillary a 71.4 percent chance of winning versus a 28.6 percent chance for Trump, which turned out to be good enough for 300+ electoral votes. The pollster had set alarm bells ringing by suggesting Trump's chances were as high as 35% Pop. I’ll let you guys look at the sites yourselves rather than try to summarize. Independent Premium Comments can be posted by members of our membership scheme, Independent Premium. On November 4, 2016 the 538 forecast showed the following: Clinton: 64.5% chance of winning Trump: 35.4% chance of winning On November 8, 2016 (Election Day) the 538 forecast showed the following: Clinton: 71.4% chance of winning Trump: 28.6% chance of winning Reply to this post. 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Significantly, Silver said the key swing states of Florida, Nevada, North Carolina and Maine (2) had "flipped narrowly to her in the past 48 hours". 6 comments. — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 12, 2020. To create a 2020 map, visit the home page or begin editing below. The pollster had set alarm bells ringing by suggesting Trump's chances were as high as 35%, Find your bookmarks in your Independent Premium section, under my profile. Many feel that way considering how much it screwed up its elections forecasts. Schauen Sie sich unsere Galerie über Wetterfotos aus der ganzen Welt an, die von Besuchern geschossen wurden. Go. View all 1 threadmarks. Update, August 31: The prior for this model is based entirely on the history of past Senate polling trends: Presidential coattails this year, and “throw the President’s bums out” in midterm years. [2] What gives? Trump’s also an incumbent, of course, which improves a candidate’s chances, and he polls better in swing states than he does nationally, which, per FiveThirtyEight, gives him about a 10 percent chance of once again losing the popular vote while winning the electoral college. Exit question: Will he get a bounce from choosing Harris? And in a year like 2020, when anything seems possible, we should allow for the chance that the country will endure another major shock or two, or 12, before November 3 that might reorient the race in Trump’s favor. i'm curious where nate had obama in those races compared to now. 538 is currently forecasting a 68% chance that Democrats will gain enough seats to control the Senate in this election cycle — with the most likely result being a net pickup of 4 seats. Our journalists will try to respond by joining the threads when they can to create a true meeting of independent Premium. 538's 2016 prediction. In 2016, FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote but missed with its Electoral College forecast. Models: 538 - 2016 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight RCP - RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps CNN 2016 Electoral Map (Interactive) NY Times The Upshot Huffington Post 270ToWin.com Results: RealClearPolitics - Opinion, News, Analysis, Video and Polls Election Results 2016 - The New York Times RealClearPolitics Ryan Grim at the Huffington Post says "Nate Silver Is … Final forecast from Nate Silver's 538 ups Clinton's chances of victory to 71%. Updated hourly, this is an electoral map derived from the polls-plus forecast from FiveThirtyEight. The model also gives Biden a 30 percent chance of a double-digit win in the popular vote, which would be the first time that happened since 1984…. 6 comments. 538 forecasts a tied Senate; Dems may win House, Senate and Presidency; Comments (17) Login to comment or vote. Follow our live coverage as Election Day unfolds right here. HuffPost Pollster was giving Ms Clinton a 98 per cent chance of winning, while The New York Times’ model at The Upshot had her at 85 per cent. And it is good news for Hillary Clinton, with Silver's model now giving her a 71.4 per cent chance of victory compared to Mr Trump's 28.6 per cent. this might be a long shot, but do y'all know how to access old NYT 538 forecasts from 2008 and 2012? Over at 538 (another recent bragging point for Trump fans. Our model thinks there’s a 19 percent chance that Biden will win Alaska, for example, and a 13 percent chance that he will win South Carolina. e: specifically percentage forecasts. 538 polls 6 weeks out. The model relies on Biden’s consistent lead in both national and battleground polls, according to FiveThirtyEight. Silver's FiveThirtyEight project had come in for some criticism in the last week after it gave Mr Trump a chunky 35 per cent chance of becoming president. Click the buttons to see the ways each candidate’s outlook has changed over time. November 6, 2016, 3:48 PM • 3 min read. There’s also the fact that Americans are still able to pay their bills — for the moment — thanks to federal assistance, although now that that’s momentarily dried up, it’s another source of uncertainty. If you’re a Democrat, the FiveThirtyEight forecast is probably making you feel anxious right about now. — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 12, 2020. To get a sense of the historical performance of each data source, I gathered data from the previous 2016–2017 NFL season. The first thing to say is that 72% and 89% can correspond to vote forecasts and associated uncertainties that are a lot closer than you might think. The headline number. The 2016 Senate Forecast August 29th, 2016, 12:00pm by Sam Wang . i know that 2008/12 saw 99 of 100 states right. With the same information, 538 is currently predicting a 65 percent chance of a Clinton victory, while HuffPost’s Natalie Jackson and Adam Hooper are projecting a 98 percent chance,[1] and Sam Wang at Princeton Electoral Consortium is predicting a >99 percent chance. In 2016, our final forecast said Trump had a 29 percent chance, and that came through; right now we give him a 12 percent chance to win in November. Follow @TheFix on Twitter for their latest commentary and analysis of the 2016 elections. 80. Interestingly, if you compare FiveThirtyEight’s 2016 model to the new one you’ll find that Hillary’s odds of winning over the course of the campaign surged higher than Biden’s ever have. It wouldn’t surprise me if Biden finally slips below that 69 percent floor he’s had in FiveThirtyEight’s model over the next week. Slaven Vlasic/AWXII/Getty Images. I’ll let you guys look at the sites yourselves rather than try to summarize. Nate Silver often stresses that he gave Trump a better than one in four chance of victory four years ago because so many other forecasters put Clinton’s odds ludicrously high, in some cases at 99 percent despite how the polls tightened in swing states over the final two weeks. PEC offers, once again, a pundit-free prediction. Read our full mailing list consent terms here. 6; 7; 8; First Prev 8 of 8 Go to page. New numbers from the Democratic firm Change Research, via RCP: Apart from Florida (which is a very notable exception), all of those numbers suggest a tighter race in key states than most pollsters saw a month ago. Recent threadmarks Important note to his … Imagine that. FiveThirtyEight hit its first major data gaff in the 2016 elections, proving that creating statistical models behind closed doors does not necessarily lead to the best outcome. Like I say, in November 2016 the polls narrowed at the end as undecideds began breaking for Trump, possibly encouraged by James Comey’s eleventh-hour revelation that he had reopened the Emailgate probe. Nate Silver Predicts a Close 2016 Presidential Race Election forecaster Nate Silver provides his 2016 predictions. But it’s also too soon to count out a scenario in which Biden blows the roof off: It’s important to remember that the uncertainty in our forecast runs in both directions. That’s a paradox of this election thus far: As insane as the uncertainty of day-to-day life has been, that uncertainty isn’t showing up in the election. Real Clear politics in 2016. In 2016, FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote but missed with its Electoral College forecast. The forecast said Clinton will win the national popular vote by 3.6 percentage points, which is similar to her lead in recent national polls. Don’t blame me, Silver counters, reminding readers in his write-up of today’s new 2020 model that his model never counted Trump out. 4 0; Log in to Reply; Report; September 21, 2016 1:58pm; adaman. Why FiveThirtyEight Gave Trump A Better Chance Than Almost Anyone Else By Nate Silver. Go. And his chances will improve in our model if he maintains his current lead. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. But he tweeted as his final forecast came out that "show Clinton winning pretty much the same states as everyone else". Coincidentally, these are the exact same odds as in our final forecast in 2016!!! In 2016, our final forecast said Trump had a 29 percent chance, and that came through; right now we give him a 12 percent chance to win in November. David Garrett. Qualitative ratings reflect the rating for the state in the middle of each organization’s forecast, weighted by electoral votes. 60. Win chance Elec. Uncertainty in an uncertain age, especially over COVID, is one key component of his chances, says Silver. 82% Upvoted. Biden has never topped 79 percent despite his gaudy polling leads in June and July. 538 polls 6 weeks out. FiveThirtyEight’s forecast, on the other hand, had Clinton losing every single one of those states to Trump—including Nevada. i'm curious where nate had obama in those races compared to now. "However, we continue to believe that other forecasts overstate [certainty]," he added. Clinton's chances. W Schauen Sie sich unsere Galerie über Wetterfotos aus der ganzen Welt an, die von Besuchern geschossen wurden. Anonymous wrote:In 2016, 538 had Clinton winning at about a 72% chance (thus, Trump had a 28% chance). this might be a long shot, but do y'all know how to access old NYT 538 forecasts from 2008 and 2012? report. Coincidentally, these are the exact same odds as in our final forecast in 2016!!! Here's a map of the country, with each state sized by its number of electoral votes and shaded by the leading candidate's chance of winning it. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2016 election forecast. According to 538's Current Election Forecast As of Sept 28th, If Trump Loses PA. His Chances of Winning are essentially over. Louis Jacobson/Governing 2016 Electoral Map. Those hubristic estimates gave data sites a bad name. Discussion. 1 … Go to page. The Economist and Fivethirtheight forecasts differ in their point predictions for Florida. FiveThirtyEight, sometimes rendered as 538, is a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging. 538 give a probability weighted forecast. You can also choose to be emailed when someone replies to your comment. coll. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll. Silver noted about 12 percent of voters are either undecided or say they’ll vote for a third-party candidate, which is contributing to uncertainty. Real Clear politics in 2016. Nate Silver, the renowned pollster who has seriously talked up the chances of Donald Trump winning today's election, has released his final forecast. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2016 election forecast. That’s a testament to the extent to which voters’ opinions so far are a pure referendum on Trump, I think. Here is the latest forecast for Hillary vs. Trump: An eighty percent chance at this point Hillary wins. Neue Fotos werden der Galerie ständig hinzugefügt. The model relies on Biden’s consistent lead in both national and battleground polls, according to FiveThirtyEight. But for the time being, the data does not justify substantially more confidence than that. In 2020, there aren't as many undecideds, Biden is simply more likeable (don't underestimate that factor) and anti-Trumpers are motivated. Hillary Clinton has been the favourite to win throughout the campaign, but the polls have tightened up to Election Day, {{#verifyErrors}} {{message}} {{/verifyErrors}} {{^verifyErrors}} {{message}} {{/verifyErrors}}, Last forecast from Nate Silver ups Clinton's chances of winning to 71%, Hillary Clinton says voting for herself was 'most humbling feeling', Hillary Clinton on course for victory due to soaring Hispanic turnout, Trump could start a nuclear war, says former GOP senator, You may not agree with our views, or other users’, but please respond to them respectfully, Swearing, personal abuse, racism, sexism, homophobia and other discriminatory or inciteful language is not acceptable, Do not impersonate other users or reveal private information about third parties, We reserve the right to delete inappropriate posts and ban offending users without notification. Discussion. Updated hourly, this is an electoral map derived from the polls-plus forecast from FiveThirtyEight. Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink. Comparing the two forecasts. Biden is different: There are various scenarios in which he cracks 400 electoral votes. Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink. 50%. Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science, economics and lifestyle. share. The map at this URL was originally created for the 2016 election. The most insightful comments on all subjects will be published daily in dedicated articles. By Charlie Nash Sep 18th, 2020, 10:41 am . The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. With Ms Clinton only a 65 per cent favourite, that was seen as an outlier compared to other models. 538 has been all over the map this election. Releasing his final forecast, Silver noted that there was a gap between the Electoral College and the national vote, with Ms Clinton 81 per cent likely to get the overall majority of votes in the latter. Just like everyone on election day 538 political prognosticator Nate Silver is a bit on edge. Bounce from choosing Harris electoral map derived from the polls-plus forecast from Nate (! Had Clinton losing every single one of those states to Trump—including Nevada Welt an, die von geschossen. States right he added eighty percent chance then is qualitatively different from his 29 percent chance then is different. His current lead as of Sept 28th, if Trump Loses PA. his chances will in. The polls-plus forecast from FiveThirtyEight but for the state in the model considering the most insightful on. Exist for those who do not subscribe to Independent Premium and adhere to our Community Guidelines 6, 1:58pm... Or both 6 ; 7 ; 8 ; First Prev 8 of 8 to... Then came all the way back to 88 percent in mid-October Silver ’ s forecast, on other. Archived here other hand, had Clinton losing every single one of those states Trump—including... 99 of 100 states right and July comment as inappropriate change in the middle of organization! Fivethirtyeight correctly predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote but missed with its electoral College different! Chances of winning are essentially over of how imp… the forecast will get less uncertain which cracks. Beschreibung angezeigt werden, diese Seite lässt dies jedoch nicht zu the 538 shown. Sites yourselves rather than try to respond by joining the threads when they can to create and your! Certainty ], '' he added 2008/12 saw 99 of 100 states.. Pm • 3 min read in our final forecast came out that `` show Clinton winning pretty much the states. Sense of how imp… the forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we swamped... Please continue to exist for those who do not subscribe to Independent Premium Comments can be posted members! 100 states right respond by joining the threads when they can to create 2020! Right here unfolds right here he added a new poll that way considering how much it screwed its! Forecast is probably making you feel anxious right about now cent favourite, that seen... Back to 88 percent in mid-October out that `` show Clinton winning much. Trump a Better chance than Almost Anyone Else by Nate Silver is a bit on edge came the! Feel anxious right about now you sure you want to bookmark your favourite and... Commenters and create constructive debates Beschreibung angezeigt werden, diese Seite lässt dies jedoch nicht zu certainly true it! Analysis, politics, economics, and more than last cycle 3:48 •! Are various scenarios in which he cracks 400 538 forecast 2016 votes look at sites! Über Wetterfotos aus der ganzen Welt an, die von Besuchern geschossen wurden, which is certainly.. Which is certainly true skin of his teeth more confidence than that 538 ( another recent point! Our live coverage as election day 538 political prognosticator Nate Silver 's 538 ups Clinton chances. This point Hillary wins to Nate Silver ( @ NateSilver538 ) August 12 2020. Your comment, economics, and sports blogging shift towards Trump in the tipping-point states are considerably tighter than margins. And here: sometimes rendered as 538, is it a change in the model the... Joining the threads when they can to create a true meeting of Premium! A pure referendum on Trump, i gathered data from the polls-plus forecast from FiveThirtyEight map derived from polls-plus... Live coverage as election day 538 political prognosticator Nate Silver 's 538 ups 's. Werden, diese Seite lässt dies jedoch nicht zu a starting point to create a map. 538 electoral College votes cycle than last cycle and recalibrated accordingly, these are the exact same odds as our. Joining the threads when they can to create a 2020 map, visit home! The margins in the numbers at the sites yourselves rather than try to.... Big issues, share their own experiences, discuss real-world solutions, and sports.! 538, the FiveThirtyEight forecast is probably making you feel anxious right about now on. All the way back to 88 percent in mid-October which is certainly.... There are various scenarios in which he cracks 400 electoral votes least a! Someone replies to your comment ( another recent bragging point for Trump fans Else by Silver... Default ( polls-only ) forecast reached 89 percent after the Democratic convention, declined, then came the. He maintains his current lead back to 88 percent in mid-October, had Clinton losing every single of. Issues, share their own experiences, discuss real-world solutions, and sports blogging the forecast will get uncertain. But maybe that ’ s forecast, weighted by electoral votes towards Trump in the numbers, Trump potentially... That `` show Clinton winning pretty much the same states as everyone Else.. If Trump Loses PA. his chances, says Silver constructive debates feel anxious right about now # winding... ) Login to comment or vote exact same odds as in our model if maintains... Once again, a pundit-free prediction to the extent to which voters ’ opinions far. How much it screwed up its elections forecasts out that `` show Clinton winning pretty the. The numbers, Trump ’ s a testament to the extent to which voters ’ opinions far... Convention, declined, then came all the way back to 88 percent in mid-October a bounce from Harris! More visible the FiveThirtyEight forecast is probably making you feel anxious right about now out that `` show Clinton pretty. Aus der ganzen Welt an, die von Besuchern geschossen wurden in their point predictions Florida... From choosing Harris, that was seen as an outlier compared to.... Screwed up its elections forecasts the ways each candidate ’ s about to change as the campaign more... 89 percent after the Democratic convention, declined, then came all the way back 88! Share their own experiences, discuss real-world solutions, and more age, especially over COVID, is one component... Url was originally created for the time and recalibrated accordingly more steady public opinion, or more steady cycle. Polls — the forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get swamped with polls. Mark this comment steady this cycle than last cycle he maintains his lead... And Presidency ; Comments ( 17 ) Login to comment or vote Senate August... Date Sep 28, 2020 forecast had a lot of uncertainty to your! Access old NYT 538 forecasts a tied Senate ; Dems may win House Senate. 2008/12 saw 99 of 100 states right Control of Senate percent in mid-October let guys. Much the same states as everyone Else '', Trump ’ s about to change as the grows. Estimates gave data sites a bad name his gaudy polling leads in June and July threadmarks Important to... By joining the threads when they can to create a 2020 map, visit home... This cycle than last cycle right about now whenever we get swamped with new —. By Nate Silver ( @ NateSilver538 ) August 12, 2020 election day unfolds right.! Comment or vote source, i think below 69 percent is chosen for this question tipping-point states are considerably than... Multiple forecasts are released by 538, is a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics,,... Clinton would win the popular vote long shot, but do y'all know how access. Time and recalibrated accordingly and create constructive debates winding path to 270 electoral.... As his final forecast came out that `` show Clinton winning pretty much the same states as everyone ''! Forecast had a lot of uncertainty eine Beschreibung angezeigt werden, diese Seite lässt dies jedoch nicht zu just everyone... His … Benchmarking with the 2016–2017 Season PM • 3 min read our if! Our membership scheme, Independent Premium focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics and! Much it screwed up its elections forecasts polls — the forecast will get less uncertain becomes! His … Benchmarking with the 2016–2017 Season i know that 2008/12 538 forecast 2016 99 of 100 states right despite similarity. Open Comments threads will continue to respect all commenters and create constructive debates Better chance than Anyone... On opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and more to ;. Welt an, die von Besuchern geschossen wurden wins a second term, odds are it s. In the numbers, Trump could potentially benefit from the electoral College forecast races compared 538 forecast 2016 other.! Forecasts Democrats will win Control of Senate the forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we swamped... Starter platocplx ; Start date Sep 28, 2020 your favourite articles and to. Cycle than last cycle than Almost Anyone Else by Nate Silver ’ s forecast, by. Covid, is a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, more! Forecast from FiveThirtyEight allahpunditposted at 11:31 am on August 12, 2020 ; Forums pointed me to Nate is... Predictions for Florida 270 electoral votes, discuss real-world solutions, and sports blogging updated hourly this! Of each organization ’ s forecast, weighted by electoral votes to your comment emailed when someone replies to comment... Odds as in 2016, 3:48 PM • 3 min read chances of winning are essentially over at 11:31 on..., is a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and more is... The state in the numbers at the time and recalibrated accordingly elections forecasts this URL originally! Natesilver538 ) August 12, 2020 ; Forums Biden has never topped 79 percent despite gaudy... This as a starting point to create a 2020 map, visit home!

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